Journal of Global Agriculture and Ecology

Ethiopia is among the leading wheat-producing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa; however, productivity among smallholder farmers remains low due to multiple structural constraints, of which seed insecurity is particularly critical. In response to limited availability of certified seed, many farmers rely on informal seed a source, which adversely affects yield performance. Meanwhile, extension efforts have largely emphasized area expansion rather than strengthening seed systems. Despite the economic implications, limited empirical evidence exists on the independent effect of seed source selection on wheat productivity. This study therefore examines the impact of seed source choice on wheat yield while holding other agronomic practices relatively constant and estimates the associated productivity loss. A cross-sectional survey of 203 households was conducted across four kebeles in Gedeo Zone using a multistage sampling technique. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire and analyzed using descriptive statistics and inferential methods. To address selection bias and estimate causal effects, a propensity score matching (PSM) approach was employed. The results reveal that farmers using certified seed from formal sources achieve, on average, an additional 10.87 quintals per hectare compared to those relying on informal seed systems. The estimated treatment effects are statistically significant across multiple matching algorithms, confirming the robustness of the findings. The study concludes that limited access to formal seed sources results in substantial productivity and economic losses for smallholder farmers, even under comparable production conditions. Strengthening seed system coordination and improving access to certified seed through integrated efforts by extension services and seed enterprises at regional, zonal, and woreda levels is therefore essential to enhance wheat productivity.